Sea Level Prediction in the Yellow Sea From Satellite Altimetry With a Combined Least Squares-Neural Network Approach     

Jian Zhao  Yanguo Fan  Yuxiang Mu 《Marine Geodesy》2019,42(4):344-366

Accessible high-quality observation datasets and proper modeling process are critically required to accurately predict sea level rise in coastal areas. This study focuses on developing and validating a combined least squares-neural network approach applicable to the short-term prediction of sea level variations in the Yellow Sea, where the periodic terms and linear trend of sea level change are fitted and extrapolated using the least squares model, while the prediction of the residual terms is performed by several different types of artificial neural networks. The input and output data used are the sea level anomalies (SLA) time series in the Yellow Sea from 1993 to 2016 derived from ERS-1/2, Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1/2, and Envisat satellite altimetry missions. Tests of different neural network architectures and learning algorithms are performed to assess their applicability for predicting the residuals of SLA time series. Different neural networks satisfactorily provide reliable results and the root mean square errors of the predictions from the proposed combined approach are less than 2?cm and correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SLA are up to 0.87. Results prove the reliability of the combined least squares-neural network approach on the short-term prediction of sea level variability close to the coast.  相似文献   

基于逾渗模型的泥页岩导电机理模拟          下载免费PDF全文

赵军  代新雲  卢一凡  唐深华 《地球物理学报》2017,60(5):2020-2028

泥页岩储层储集空间以纳米/微米级的微孔隙和微裂缝为主,结构复杂,加之干酪根和黏土矿物含量较高,并含有一定量的黄铁矿等导电矿物,造成储层导电机理异于常规储层,岩电实验I-S_w曲线呈现非线性特征,阿尔奇公式等传统评价模型适用性较差.针对上述问题,根据实际岩心实验资料,结合随机算法建立三维逾渗模型并通过数值模拟和超松弛迭代法进行求解,分析泥页岩储层非阿尔奇性产生原因以及泥页岩储层电性的影响因素及规律.模拟结果显示,岩石孔隙拓扑结构和形状尺寸、矿物组成以及地层水电阻率等因素均对泥页岩储层电阻率产生不同程度的影响,通过改变上述因素的设定值,可以建立储层电阻率与各因素的单相关关系,并据此建立修正模型,实现储层含水饱和度的计算.该模型在四川某页岩气产区取得了较好的效果,具有良好的应用前景,为利用逾渗模型模拟方法解决油田勘探开发中的复杂问题提供了新思路.  相似文献   

径向基神经网络GPS高程转换方法     

杨金玲  曹先革  曹先密 《地理空间信息》2010,8(6):65-66,70

针对GPS高程转换问题,给出了基于径向基神经网络转换GPS高程的模型。用实际观测数据对该模型进行了试验,结果表明,用径向基神经网络转换GPS高程精度高于二次拟合法和BP神经网络法。径向基神经网络能够有效克服BP神经网络局部极小值的缺点,并且具有较高的收敛速度,在GPS高程转换方面具有广阔应用前景。  相似文献   

Simulation and Validation of the Aerosol Optical Thicknessover China in 2006     

ZHANG Hu  ZHANG Min  CUI Zhenlei  WANG Yuesi  XIN Jinyuan 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2012,26(3):330-344

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Preliminary Analysis of the Relationship between the Magnitude Deviation of the Station and Site Response in the Fujian Digital Seismic Network     

Yang Gui  Xu Zhendong  Lin Binhua 《中国地震研究》2017,31(2):257-268

Using the records of 3,069 regional earthquake events from the Fujian Digital Seismic Network from October 2008 to December 2015,in which the magnitude of each of the events was measured by at least six stations,statistics are taken on the deviation between the magnitude of a single station and the average magnitude of the network. It is found that the magnitudes average deviation of each station is-0. 31-0. 68. Statistics are also taken for the period corresponding to the maximum amplitude of the record measured in each station for calculating the magnitude,and the dominant period gained is 0. 06s-0. 38s; site response of each seismic station is inverted using the Moya method,and it is found that the site response of 98 stations is in the bands of 1-20 Hz,suggesting that the site has an amplifying or suppressing effect on the signals in certain frequency bands;Considering the site response corresponding to the inherent 0. 8s period of the WoodAnderson pendulum seismograph,and comparing the magnitude deviation caused by the site response corresponding to the dominant period time of each station with the average magnitude deviation, we obtain that there is a good linear relationship between the magnitude deviation from the dominant period site response and the average deviation of the magnitude of each station,indicating that the magnitude deviation of a single station has a close relationship with the site response of the period corresponding to the maximum amplitude measured for calculating the magnitude.  相似文献   

Predicting plant water content in Eucalyptus grandis forest stands in KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa using field spectra resampled to the Sumbandila Satellite Sensor     

Z. Oumar  O. Mutanga 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2010

The measurement of plant water content is essential to assess stress and disturbance in forest plantations. Traditional techniques to assess plant water content are costly, time consuming and spatially restrictive. Remote sensing techniques offer the alternative of a non-destructive and instantaneous method of assessing plant water content over large spatial scales where ground measurements would be impossible on a regular basis. In the context of South Africa, due to the cost and availability of imagery, studies focusing on the estimation of plant water content using remote sensing data have been limited. With the scheduled launch of the South African satellite SumbandilaSat evident in 2009, it is imperative to test the utility of this satellite in estimating plant water content. This study resamples field spectral data measured from a field spectrometer to the band settings of the SumbandilaSat in order to test its potential in estimating plant water content in a Eucalyptus plantation. The resampled SumbandilaSat wavebands were input into a neural network due to its ability to model non-linearity in a dataset and its inherent ability to perform better than conventional linear models. The integrated approach involving neural networks and the resampled field spectral data successfully predicted plant water content with a correlation coefficient of 0.74 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.41% on an independent test dataset outperforming the traditional multiple regression method of estimation. The best-trained neural network algorithm that was chosen for assessing the relationship between plant water content and the SumbandilaSat bands was based on a few points only and more research is required to test the robustness and effectiveness of this sensor in estimating plant water content across different species and seasons. This is critical for monitoring plantation health in South Africa using a cheaply available local sensor containing key vegetation wavelengths.  相似文献   

Pipe laying simulation with an active reel drive     

Marek Szczotka 《Ocean Engineering》2010,37(7):539-548

Dynamic and quasi-static models for analysis of a pipe lay spread are presented in the paper. Depending on the type of a pipe, spooling it on a big drum (reel) may cause plastic deformations. When the pipe is reeled out at sea, again it undergoes plastic deformations. In order to model such a nonlinear behaviour, a model, which includes both elasto-plastic material characteristics and large deformations, is required. Discretisation of the pipe is performed by means of the Rigid Finite Element Method (RFEM), which allows us to study static and dynamic problems, taking into account required properties of the model. Different sea conditions are simulated and analysed. It is shown how operational conditions can limit the ability of laying operation by a dedicated vessel, due to an unstable system response. The second part of the paper presents an upgrade of a passive reel drive by application of an active drive. In the model used for control applications, the pipe is modelled by a neural network. This allows us to perform a real-time calculations. In this fast-response calculation model, nonlinear aspects of the system are taken into account. The improvements in a pipe laying vessel performance are presented by some results of numerical simulations. The conclusions are also formulated.  相似文献   

Modeling of Dissolved Oxygen Concentration and Its Hysteresis Behavior in Rivers Using Wavelet Transform‐Based Hybrid Models     

《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2017,45(2)

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中国地震台网监测能力评估和台站检测能力评分(2008—2015年)          下载免费PDF全文

王亚文  蒋长胜  刘芳  毕金孟 《地球物理学报》2017,60(7):2767-2778

针对中国地震台网"十五"项目建成后的地震监测能力科学评估的需求，为进一步优化台网布局、提升边疆海域等重点地区监测能力，本研究利用"基于概率的完整性震级"（PMC）方法，对中国地震台网1001个台站以及2008-10-01-2015-09-17期间实际产出的地震观测资料进行了研究，分析了指定震级档下的检测概率P_E和最小完整性震级M_P的分布.除台网整体监测能力分布外，为直观地用单分值表述逐个台站的地震检测能力，本文发展了基于等振幅曲线的"地震检测能力评分表"，给出了国家台和区域台每个台站的地震检测能力评分统计特征和空间分布特征.此外，研究中还采用设定"最佳"地震监测能力目标函数的方式，模拟了通过改进观测条件可获得的地震台网监测能力提升的理论结果.研究结果表明，我国华北和东南沿海等东部地区地震监测能力较高，西部尤其是青藏高原南部地区M_p仅约为4.5，近海海域M_p仅约为3.5；从单个地震台站的运行效益角度，台网运行水平和地震观测资料的分析程度对台站的实际的地震检测能力影响显著，新疆等部分台站稀疏地区地震检测能力较高，而中等台站密度的贵州等部分区域相对较低；国家台的地震检测能力评分D_score系统优于区域台，新疆等西部边疆地区，以及福建等东南沿海地区的D_score明显高于台站密集的东部地区；模拟结果显示，在现有台站布局条件下，通过台站优化改造和提升运维管理水平，可显著提升对内蒙古西部、四川西部、甘肃-青海的北部交界地区、鄂尔多斯地块内部、贵州大部分地区，以及我国近海海域、朝鲜半岛北部和中南半岛北部地区的地震监测能力.  相似文献   

The emergent network structure of the multilateral environmental agreement system     

Rakhyun E. Kim 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):980-991

The conventional piecemeal approach to environmental treaty-making has resulted in a ‘maze’ of international agreements. However, little is known empirically about its overall structure and evolutionary dynamics. This study reveals and characterizes the evolving structure of the web of international environmental treaty law. The structure was approximated using 1001 cross-references among 747 multilateral environmental agreements concluded from 1857 to 2012. Known network analysis measures were used to answer the following questions: has a complex system of international environmental treaty law emerged? If so when, and what does it look like? What are its topological properties? To what extent is the institutional complex fragmented? The network analysis suggested that multilateral environmental agreements have self-organized into an interlocking system with a complex network structure. Furthermore, the system has defragmented as it coevolved with the increasing complexity and interconnectivity of global environmental challenges. This study demonstrates the need to approach multilateral environmental agreements in the context of a complex networked system, and recommends against assuming the overall institutional structure is fragmented. Proposals for global environmental governance reform should pay attention to this network's emergent polycentric order and complexity and to the implications of these features for the functioning of the multilateral environmental agreement system.  相似文献